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    2020 Beach Pre-Season Hurricane Report

    Beach 2020 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook

    Beach presents its annual Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season.

    This year a consensus of forecasts is indicating an above average season. This follows on from three active years, two of which saw very heavy loss activity. In 2019, the United States was luckily spared any significant hurricane loss events. However, it could have been rather different if Dorian had followed one of its early forecast tracks and made a CAT 5 landfall in Florida. It nevertheless devastated the Bahamas, causing significant loss of life and property damage.

    As we do each year, we have considered several key persistent variables behind the forecasts to provide context.

    This year high Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) and a potential La Nina are the main drivers of the above average forecasts. The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (“AMO”) index published by NOAA, a measure of how warm the Atlantic is relative to average, was at its highest level since 1948 for February and March, and second highest level for April. High AMO is usually a strong indicator of an active season.

    We have also looked for factors that may give us reasons to be less pessimistic about the upcoming season. The strongest is probably the distribution of warm water in the Atlantic, which is unlike that of the active seasons with similarly high AMO early in the 2010, 2005 and 1998 years. This year most of the anomalously warm water is north of the Main Development Region and hence hopefully not as effective in promoting hurricane genesis and strengthening.

    The COVID-19 pandemic means that disruption and cost caused by a hurricane landfall or near miss this year would likely be considerably amplified.

    The full report is available via the link below:

     

    2020 Beach Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook

  • Beach 2020 Pre-Season Hurricane Report
    Beach & Associates - COVID-19 Newsletter

    Beach & Associates – COVID-19 Newsletter

    The Beach COVID-19 Newsletter aims to provide an open and candid review of the impact that the Coronavirus outbreak is having on the (re)insurance industry, seeking to delve into class specific case studies and report what we have observed to be interesting in the press.

    The most recent issue (11) has turned the focus to the implications of a global recession on the (re)insurance market, drawing comparison to the financial crisis of 2008 and highlighting why we may fare better this time around.

    Please follow the link below for full newsletter and prior issues:

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 11 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 10 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 9 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 8 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 7 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 6 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 5 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 4 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 3 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 2 – Beach & Associates

    Covid-19 Newsletter Edition 1 – Beach & Associates